2008 Kentucky Derby Info

outlaw420 · Posted: Apr 30 2008 07:12 am Post subject: 2008 Kentucky Derby Info

Kentucky Derby - Part I
April 28, 2008
By Anthony Stabile
Vegas Insider

Part I
With Derby Week upon us, what better time than to take a look at how the twenty or so horses still pointing towards Saturday’s 134th running of the Kentucky Derby got here. Only twenty can run in the Derby, so this first installment will almost certainly contain horses that won’t be in the starting gate come Saturday.

I can’t think of a better place to start than the individual who have caused somewhat of a controversy on this years’ Derby Trail, the filly Eight Belles. While it appears that Eight Belles will run in the Derby as opposed to the previous days Kentucky Oaks, she’ll be entered in both and I guarantee that if she gets stuck with a bad post in the Derby, she’ll run in the Oaks. Controversy aside, this daughter of 1996 Derby favorite Unbridled’s Song is undefeated in four starts this year after starting her career with just one win from five starts for trainer Larry Jones.

After winning an allowance contest at the Fair Grounds, she shipped to Oaklawn and started a three race stakes winning streak at the Arkansas oval, taking the Martha Washington by 13 ½ lengths Next up was her graded stakes debut in the G3 Honeybee where she came from off the pace to hand Pure Clan the first defeat of her career, winning by a measured 1 ¼ lengths. Last out, despite trailing early in a field of a four behind tepid early fractions, Eight Belles got her act together in the stretch en route to a ¾ length win in the G2 Fantasy. Gabriel Saez will ride her.

While many will argue that Eight Belles, or any other filly for that matter, belongs in the Derby, there are some that feel Salute the Sarge has even less of a right to be there despite having secured more than enough earnings to start.

Last year, Salute the Sarge won the G3 Hollywood Juvenile and G2 Best pal before finishing second in the G1 Del Mar Futurity and G1 Norfolk, all over synthetic surfaces in southern California. In his lone dirt try, he ended the season with an abysmal ninth place finish in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. This year, he won the San Miguel at Santa Anita in his first start off a five month layoff before trudging home seventh in the G2 Lexington, two weeks prior to the Derby. While it’s doubtful he’ll run, his connections, including trainer Eric Guillot, still remain on the fence. Michael Baze would ride.
The owners of Lexington winner Behindatthebar should be commended for not automatically catching a case of Derby Fever after the victory.

Another who has done his best work over synthetic surfaces (he’s won 3 of 4 starts), they’re leaving the decision up to his trainer, Todd Pletcher as to whether he’ll run in the Derby or not. Pletcher has said he’ll wait until Tuesday or maybe even Wednesday right before entry to make a decision.
In his lone try on dirt, Behindatthebar finished fifth in the G3 El Camino Real Derby at Bay Meadows and will be trying to buck one of the biggest Derby trends as he did not make a single start as a two-year-old. David Flores would ride.

Once considered a shoo-in for the Run for the Roses and a regular at the top of Derby lists across the country, Denis of Cork and trainer David Carroll may find themselves on the outside looking in come Saturday and will need some help to get into the Derby.

After breaking his maiden going seven furlongs at Churchill Downs last November, Denis of Cork won an allowance contest in the slop at the Fair Grounds before closing from well off the pace to win the G3 Southwest at Oaklawn in his stakes debut. His owners, who rely heavily on speed figures and “the sheets” when deciding when to run their horses, toyed with the idea of running twice more before the Derby but decided it was best to run just once more and settled on the G2 Illinois Derby at Hawthorne Park.

Despite finding a touch of trouble going down the backside, Denis of Cork never fired as the even money favorite and stumbled home fifth, thus costing him dearly in the graded stakes earnings department. If all goes according to plan however, he should find himself in the starting gate on Saturday and will have last years’ Derby winning rider Calvin Borel in the saddle.

Smooth Air is a great example of how heartbreaking this game could be. In seven career starts, he’s never finished worse than third and this year alone won the G2 Hutcheson and finished second in the G1 Florida Derby last out, giving him more than enough earning for the Derby while providing his 70 year old conditioner Bennie Stutts Jr. his first Derby runner. Unfortunately for his connections, Smooth Air spiked a fever early last week and is now questionable for his Derby run. Manoel Cruz is scheduled to ride.
Finally, Halo Najib would need for everything to fall apart for many in order for him to get into the Derby starting gate. In eight starts, he’s won just twice, with both wins coming over synthetic surfaces including a score in the OBS Championships against Florida breds at the Ocala Training Center. Two starts back he finished second in the G2 Lane’s End at Turfway for trainer Dale Romans before an off the board try in the G1 Blue Grass at Keeneland last out. No possible rider has been named.

outlaw420 · Posted: Apr 30 2008 07:13 am Post subject:

Lookin' for a Triple Crown winner
April 28, 2008
By Anthony Stabile
Vegas Insider

Some say it’s the toughest accomplishment in sports yet those who speak of it can personally achieve it as it is left to the athlete of the four-legged variety. It is Thoroughbred racing’s Triple Crown.

Three different distances run at three different racetracks in just five weeks. They’ve been running the three legs of the Triple Crown- the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont Stakes - for well over 130 years now and only eleven horses have been able to grab the ultimate brass ring in the sport. Each year, over 35,000 Thoroughbreds are born, with each of their owners dreaming the impossible dream of winning the Triple Crown.
Even in this new era of Thoroughbred racing, with revenue from casinos and slot machines sending the purses for your everyday races soaring into the stratosphere and multi-million dollar nights of racing scattered across the globe in places such as Dubai and Hong Kong, not to mention the Breeders’ Cup held annually in North America, all the average Joe cares about when it comes to horse racing is the Triple Crown.

Since 1978 when Affirmed capped off a six year span in which both Secretariat and Seattle Slew captured the Triple Crown as well, ten horses, six in the last 11 years alone, have won both the Kentucky Derby and Preakness before strolling into the Big Apple with a chance to join the pantheon of equine immortals. All ten have failed.

In 1979, Spectacular Bid stepped on a safety pin that became lodged a half inch into his hoof the day before the Belmont while Pleasant Colony couldn’t handle the rigors of the trail and lost a ton of weight before the final jewel two years later. Both finished third.
Trainer Bob Baffert had back to back chances when Silver Charm didn’t see Touch Gold flying at him on the outside in 1997 before Real Quiet was the victim of a premature move by his jockey Kent Desormeaux and squandered a five length lead in the stretch the following year.

And who can forget the images of the late, great jockey Chris Antley holding Charismatics’ injured leg up just yards after the finish of the 1999 Belmont that saw his Cinderella-like run come to an all too painful and hasty halt.
In 2002, War Emblem rose from relative obscurity to even money favorite on Belmont Day only to lose all chance at the start when he was bothered by several rivals leaving out of the gate. The very next season, Funny Cide went too fast early on and ultimately couldn’t handle the 1 ½ miles of the “Test of the Champion.”

Perhaps the greatest upset of them all occurred in 2004, when the undefeated Smarty Jones opened up a three-length lead turning for home. With 120,000 screaming fans serving as the backdrop, it appeared a glorious and raucous winners’ circle coronation was at hand. But Birdstone had other ideas and ran Smarty Jones down in the shadow of the wire, causing the record-setting crowd to boo him and jockey Edgar Prado afterwards.

What makes winning the Triple Crown so tough? If you ask 100 people, you’ll get 20 different answers but all of them will share a yearning to see it happen again, or for some, the first time. There are some that feel it’ll never happen again. Here are some of the more popular answers you’ll receive as to why it’s such a daunting task.

The answer you’ll get more often than not is that the breed has been weakened. When Secretariat was born in 1970, about half the number of horses that were foaled were foaled in 2008. The biggest reason was the fact that there were far fewer sires than there are today and they were much better qualified. Nowadays, almost every stakes winner becomes a sire and there are plenty of “backyard sires,” stallions that are bred for the sake of making money and not because of there accomplishments.

Another reason is the lack of sportsmanship and the enormous amount of greed that has encompassed the sport. With races like the $2 million Breeders Cup Juvenile and $1 million Delta Jackpot, there is so much money to be made as a two-year-old that plenty of owners and trainers are gearing their horses towards those races as opposed to the classics.
When they do get to the Triple Crown events it seems that the only people who care about the Preakness are the connections of the Derby winner.

You’ll see many horses skip the second jewel to await the Belmont. The purses are the same and you get to rest your horse a bit more. This poses a big problem to any horse that won the first two legs because those awaiting the Belmont have had five weeks to recharge their batteries while the winner is coming in with two tough races under his belt. Both Funny Cide and Smarty Jones fell victim to this as Empire Maker and Birdstone ran in the Derby but not the Preakness and were laying in the weeds for the Belmont.

With that said, even the neighsayers this time of year contract a case of Derby Fever which in some instances, depending on how impressive the Derby winner is, can lead to the Triple Crown Flu. In recent years, horses like Fusaichi Pegasus in 2000 and of course the ill-fated Barbaro in 2006 had horseplayers envisioning the second coming of Hindoo just minutes after the Derby, only to have their hopes crushed just two weeks later at the Preakness. Still, if you’re a fan of the Sport of Kings, it’s what you do so let’s take a look at a few colts that have a chance at making it and even dozen Triple Crown champs.

The talk of the town right now is Big Brown, an undefeated son of Boundary who burst onto the Derby scene with an eye-popping win in the Florida Derby on March 29th. After breaking his maiden on the turf at historic Saratoga last labor Day and winning his first start of the season some six months later at Gulfstream this past winter, Big Brown led from start to finish in the Florida Derby in near track record time, anointing him the favorite for this year’s Run for the Roses.

His lackluster effort over the Polytrack surface at Keeneland in the Blue Grass on April 12th aside, Pyro is another who merits consideration for this year’s Triple Crown events. Pyro has hit the board in all six of his starts on conventional dirt, including wins in the Risen Star and Louisiana Derby, both held at the Fair Grounds in New Orleans this year.

While he’s raced solely over synthetic surfaces thus far, Colonel John could be an imposing sort should he be able to duplicate his efforts on the dirt. Perhaps the best Californian to try the Triple Crown since Point Given, Colonel John has the preferred middle of the pack running style for the Derby and is bred to run all day.

Tomcito could provide some international flair considering the fact that the first five starts of his career came down in Peru and he’s already won at the 1 ¼ miles distance of the Derby and the 1 ½ miles distance of the Belmont. He finished third in the Florida Derby behind Big Brown in his U.S. debut.
Whether there will be a Triple Crown winner or not this year remains to be seen but if history has taught us anything about the series it’s one thing – you’re about to experience an exciting five weeks. So get tied on and enjoy the ride!!!

The Kentucky Derby will be run on May 3rd at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky.
The Preakness will be run on May 17th at Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore, Maryland.
The Belmont Stakes will be run on June 7th at Belmont Park in Elmont, New York.

outlaw420 · Posted: Apr 30 2008 07:14 am Post subject:

Sizing up the Kentucky Derby Field - The Key Contenders

by Jeff Frank, Contributing Editor

Philadelphia, PA (Sports Network) - Most of the buzz this spring has been about Big Brown and his unbelievable performance in the Florida Derby. Add to that the recent comments made by his trainer, Rick Dutrow, and the 134th renewal of the "Run for the Roses" could be a very special two minutes.

If you happened to miss it, here's what Dutrow said. "Until somebody shows me the beast, this is not a tough horse race. I know there's no one going into this race as good as [Big Brown] is right now. If he breaks clean, it's a mismatch to me on paper."
Most trainers usually hold their own horses in high esteem, but rarely does one go public about his feelings towards the quality of the other colts in the race.

It's true Big Brown has been unstoppable in his young career, but another horse three years ago was even faster. Bellamy Road came to Kentucky with four wins in five races, including two straight wins in 2005 by a combined 33 1/4- lengths. His final prep prior to the Derby was a 17 1/2-length score in the Wood Memorial, a race in which he earned a Beyer number of 120. For comparison purposes, the highest figure Big Brown has secured is 106.

Bellamy Road was a front-runner that had to learn how to rate in the Derby after Spanish Chestnut blazed out the first half in 45 1/5 and three quarters in 1:09 2/5. The George Steinbrenner-owned colt was fifth at both points, a position he certainly was not accustomed to, and ended up tiring through the stretch, hitting the wire in seventh place.

The jury is still out on Big Brown if he can rate slightly off the pace. He didn't need the lead in his second start, but also was never more than one length off the top spot at any point in the race either. In his two appearances this year, he ran his first quarter under 23 seconds each time, reached the half below 46 twice, and sped six furlongs no slower than 1:10.

One can only imagine how fast they'll go in the Derby, and based on how loud Big Brown's connections have been about his supposed greatness, you just have to wonder if Kent Desormeaux won't just move him a little too early just to prove his explosiveness. Big Brown will also have to fend off a major challenge from Gayego approaching the far turn, which could soften him up in the stretch drive.

All this may be for naught if he is indeed a "freak of nature," but he will have to prove it against the best of the best this coming Saturday. Remember, the only very good horse he's beaten has been Smooth Air, and even he'll be 30-1 or higher in the Derby.

So why is everyone so much in love with Big Brown? The majority of racing fans feel this crop of three-year-olds is not only much weaker than last year's, but on the slow end when compared to almost every year this decade. Big Brown has been the only horse that has posted a pair of triple-digit Beyers on dirt in 2008, and it's those speed figures that have lifted him onto this high pedestal.

However, the reason his numbers tower over the rest of the field is that "Team Beyer" has not adjusted the figs for synthetic surfaces, giving the false impression that he's much faster than everyone else. Since the Blue Grass and all the races in Southern California have been run over synthetics, the numbers on Monba and Colonel John should be much higher than they appear in the racing form. Something to remember when placing bets next weekend.

THE TOP CHOICES (Prior to the Post Position draw)

It should be noted that Behindatthebar has withdrawn from the race, giving Denis of Cork the opportunity to jump into the field. With the Todd Pletcher- trained horse off the board, Tale of Ekati falls out of my top 10, in a spot now held by Visionaire. Z Fortune drops from eight to nine, so part three of this trilogy begins with the horse with the eighth-best chance of smelling the roses - Pyro.

The Risen Star and Louisiana Derby winner went off as the even money favorite in the Blue Grass (on Polytrack) and came up empty with a 10th place finish. It's very easy to dismiss the race by saying he didn't like the surface, but as mentioned in part one of this series, not one horse since 1957 has come back to win the Derby after finishing worse than 4th in his prior start.

It's true there was no such thing as Poly 50 years ago, but there are concerns about his ability to win at 10 furlongs. His dam side is loaded with speed and his sire Pulpit, who finished a tiring fourth in the '97 Derby, has not produced many horses able to win past 1 1/8-miles.

In addition, Pyro has had only one race longer than 1 1/16, if you can call his effort in the Blue Grass a race. Don't forget, his huge last-to-first burst in the Risen Star came all the way back on February 9. He does have talent, but he also could pull a Circular Quay (last year's LA Derby winner from off the pace) and run a non-threatening sixth.

Gayego, the number seven horse on the list, impressed more than a few experts in winning the Arkansas Derby, and with three wins and two seconds in five lifetime starts, he could end up going off the third choice behind Big Brown and Colonel John.

However, one has to wonder if he would have won the Ark Derby if better horses were entered. The race was weak on paper after the first two finishers, and it ended that way with 37-1 shot Tres Borrachos finishing almost five lengths back in third.

It might have been an easy task to sit a length or two off of "The Three Drunks" and be able to withstand the likes of Z Fortune through the stretch, but it will be a completely different story having to chase Big Brown, Recapturetheglory and Bob Black Jack in the early going, and still be able to withstand the presence of Colonel John, Monba and the rest of the closers through the lane.

In addition, if he runs his final three furlongs anywhere close to the 38 3/5 it took him to finish the Arkansas Derby, say goodbye to any realistic chance of winning the Kentucky Derby. He does have tons of talent, already out- running his pedigree, and even if he doesn't hit the board on Saturday, he could be a threat in the Preakness.

Court Vision, the next horse on the list, failed to improve on his two-year- old form with third-place finishes in both the Fountain of Youth and Wood Memorial.
At first glance, it appears he is entirely too slow to win this race, as his Beyer numbers have never topped the 90 mark, even on true dirt. Nevertheless, he does have a stakes win over the track and he's been training fabulously at Churchill the past couple of weeks.

On the negative side, he could be too far back to corral the entire field and win the race. Some might argue that it's been done before, as Giacomo and Street Sense both came from 18th and 17th respectively, after six furlongs to gain the victory, but there's a major difference between how those two performed prior to Kentucky and how Court Vision runs.

Giacomo was never more than four lengths behind the leader after three- quarters in any race leading up to the Derby (excluding his first career race) and the farthest Street Sense had to come from off the pace after six furlongs was 4 1/2-lengths back, not counting his Breeders Cup Juvenile victory. Court Vision, on the other hand, has had to make up 10 lengths at the three-quarter mark in both his three-year-old starts.

That's why Bill Mott sharpened him up with a 46 1/5 bullet work on April 17, hoping to improve his colt's mid-race positioning. If that works, Court Vision could be motoring home through the stretch at Churchill Downs.

THREE THROUGH FIVE (IN REVERSE ORDER)

Denis of Cork has somewhat of a similar running style to Court Vision, but the main difference between the two is that the David Carroll-trained colt has more natural ability. It didn't show in the Illinois Derby, and his fifth- place finish almost kept him out of the most important Derby of them all.
Nevertheless, he had no chance that day based on three factors: the track bias did not favor his come-from-behind style, he stumbled slightly approaching the clubhouse turn, and, most importantly, he might not have been revved up for the race based on the misguided handling that took place by his owner.

Previously, he was undefeated in three starts, including a monster performance in wining the Southwest at Oaklawn Park, and no one, with the possible exception of Colonel John, has looked better at Churchill Downs the past week. Additionally, he is one of six horses with a win over the track.

On the downside, he'll be entering the Derby with only four races under his belt and just one since February 18. Even Big Brown has raced twice since then. In addition, the last time a horse won with four lifetime starts was all the way back in 1918.

One other interesting nugget to chew on. Since Calvin Borel has picked up the mount, it raises a key question: when was the last time a jockey had back-to- back Kentucky Derby victories? You have to go back to 1982-83, when Eddie Delahoussaye won with Gato Del Sol and Sunny's Halo.
Before I announce the name of the horse that's fourth on the list, let me tell you a bit about him. He's a multiple stakes winner and one of only two colts in the field to have won a pair of stakes races around two turns with at least one coming at nine furlongs. The other? Colonel John.

He's recorded three wins and two seconds in his last five starts, including a bang-up second in his lone grade one event, beaten just a neck. In his two races at 1 1/8 miles, his fractional times (from the half to the mile) were 47 3/5 and 48 1/5, numbers faster than almost every horse in the race except for Colonel John. That quickness will help since he'll most likely sit about five to seven lengths off the early pace. He also ran his final three furlongs in 36 1/5 and 36 3/5, with his final eighth coming in 12 1/5 and 12 2/5 in those two events, signaling an outstanding turn of foot as the field moves around the far turn. And, it's at that point of the race where the Derby is usually won.

He is also magnificently bred for the 1 1/4 miles, as his sire was a multiple group one winner in Europe at three, and even came to the states to finish second in the Breeders' Cup Classic on the dirt at Churchill Downs. His dam's mother is a half-sister to Behrens, who won the Suburban Handicap, as well as running second in many other 10-furlong events, such as the Dubai World Cup, Jockey Club Gold Cup and the Travers.

This particular horse will not be one of the favorites. He won't even be 20-1. His expected final odds will range anywhere from 30 to 40-1, giving him the title of the biggest overlay in the race. His only knock (and almost every participant has one) is the fact he's run only once on dirt and finished seventh. But that was his first race and it came all the way back in the summer of 2007. What's not to say he won't like it now after running five more times, including a non-turf, second-place finish last time out?
His name is Cowboy Cal, and he's not getting any respect because he's a turf horse. Well my friends, take a quick look at how some other so-called "turf horses" have done of late.

Last year, Sedgefield, who ran second to Hard Spun on Polytrack in the Lane's End, finished fifth in Kentucky at 58-1 and he wasn't anywhere near as good on turf as Cowboy Cal. In addition, one could argue that last year's Derby field was much tougher than this year's edition.

Two years ago, there was a special turf horse that had won the same two stakes that Cowboy Cal galloped in: the Tropical Park Derby and the Laurel Futurity. His name was Barbaro. There certainly cannot be any comparison between the two horses since Barbaro reeled off a pair of dirt victories prior to the Derby, but don't underestimate Cowboy Cal's second in the Blue Grass. Sure he got away with a slow pace, but it was his first race in almost two months and he still held off 10 dirt and Polytrack horses.
If you're looking for a long shot with a great chance to win, look no further than the "Cowboy."

At the opposite end of the betting spectrum comes Big Brown. Even with all the negatives mentioned above, and I haven't even touched on previous quarter cracks in both front feet, he still must be feared since there is a chance he is that much better than everyone else.

It's true that horses with three career starts do not usually win the Derby (hasn't been done since 1915), but we live in an age where three-year-olds aren't placed on the track 10 to 12 times anymore. In fact, only four of the 20 horses in this year's race have run more than seven times. If you don't care to bet Big Brown, do so because you think he won't be able to sustain constant harassment from the other pacesetters, more than for his lack of experience.

THE TOP TWO
Monba ranks second on the top 10 Derby list after his bounce-back performance in the Blue Grass. The son of Maria's Mon (sire of 2001 Kentucky Derby winner Monarchos) finished last in his only other prep this year, the Fountain of Youth, due to a cut on his right hind leg suffered during the running of the race. He then lost valuable training time, not to mention undergoing throat surgery. But through it all, trainer Todd Pletcher never lost sight of his goal, and Monba returned with an outstanding race at Keeneland.

This horse hasn't all of a sudden jumped onto the scene with his win in the Blue Grass. He toppled 11 other opponents in two different races as a two- year-old, including a victory over recent Derby Trial winner Macho Again at Churchill Downs last November.

However, his most impressive race (up until a few weeks ago) came with an off- the-board finish in the Cash Call Futurity at Hollywood Park. Not many two- year-olds in their third career start (and first around two turns) are able to come home as strongly as he did, running his final 4 1/2 furlongs in under 53 seconds.

That race, incidentally, is turning into the most important prep as both Monba (fourth) and Colonel John (second) have recorded grade one wins in 2008. Even Sierra Sunset (sixth) took home the grade two, Rebel Stakes, and Tres Borrachos (12th), and Indian Sun (fifth) finished third and fourth respectively in the grade one, Arkansas Derby. Not to mention Eaton's Gift (seventh) won the grade two, Swale Stakes, and Into Mischief (winner) ran second to Georgie Boy in the grade two, San Vicente.

There are many horses in this race with impeccable breeding for 10 furlongs, and Monba is certainly one of them. As previously mentioned, his sire, Maria's Mon, has already produced a Kentucky Derby champion (Monarchos) and his broodmare sire, Easy Goer won the 1 1/2 miles Belmont Stakes.

Another reason Monba might be on the way up is the surgery performed on his throat after the Fountain of Youth. Many horses have returned to win back-to- back races after such a procedure, including Alysheba, who won the Blue Grass (although disqualified from the top spot) and then the Derby, and the 2007 champion sprinter Midnight Lute garnered victories in the Forego and Breeders' Cup Sprint.

Monba has shown an ability to run well close to the pace (the Blue Grass) and from out-of-the-clouds (the Cash Call) and that versatility will come in handy in Louisville. However, there are two major negatives he must overcome. First, he worked poorly at Keeneland last Saturday going five furlongs in 1:02 3/5. He has never been a great horse in the mornings, but he did blow out four furlongs right before the Blue Grass in 47 1/5.

Secondly, since he acquired nothing from his last-place finish in the Fountain of Youth, he technically is coming into the Derby off only one prep race this year. It helps a little that his last race of 2007 came in late December, but is he going to be 100% fit with just the Blue Grass as his sole "real" race in '08?

Colonel John is by far and away the top choice to win the 2008 Kentucky Derby. He is the most accomplished horse in the field (the only one without any flaws) and in most years would be the favorite. His only negative - never having run on dirt - has been answered with an effortless 57 4/5 work at Churchill Downs on April 27. His win in the Santa Anita Derby (final furlong in 12 flat) was eye-catching, and if the race had been run on dirt, his Beyer figure would have definitely topped the magical 100 mark.

His sire Tiznow won back-to-back Breeders' Cup Classics and his dam, Sweet Damsel, is by Turkoman, who won the Marlboro Cup and Widener Handicaps at 10 panels, along with finishing second in the 1986 BC Classic and the 1985 Travers. Two other daughters of Turkoman, Turkos Turn and Turkish Tryst, respectively, produced Preakness and Belmont Stakes winner Point Given, and Kentucky Derby and BC Classic runner-up, Hard Spun.

More importantly, almost every horse that has shipped from synthetic surfaces in Southern California has improved dramatically when switched to dirt at other tracks around the country. Gayego went from Santa Anita to Oaklawn, a similar surface to Churchill Downs, and won the Arkansas Derby improving seven Beyer points in the process from 96 to 103. Even the two other California horses in the race, Tres Borrachos and Indian Sun, ran third and fourth.

Sierra Sunset was an average horse in California until he hit Oaklawn to run second to Denis of Cork in the Southwest and win the Rebel. Even four-year-old Monterey Jazz, who posted only one triple-digit Beyer number in 12 career starts (the last two coming at Santa Anita), came to Lone Star Park this past weekend and rolled in the Texas Mile with a 118 Beyer.
Colonel John is bred to run all day, is the class of the race and has a chance to win this race by five lengths.

Of course a lot can change between Tuesday and Saturday, so the selection order is certainly not set in stone. Wednesday's post-position draw will go a long way in determining the outcome of the race, and the weather could play havoc as well, as the early forecast calls for a 60% chance of thunderstorms for Friday night.

outlaw420 · Posted: May 02 2008 08:34 am Post subject:

This year’s speed figures in preps among the expected 20 Kentucky Derby starters appear lower than usual.

Only five have cracked the triple-digit mark, including Bob Black Jack, who posted the highest Beyer, 109, but that was winning at six furlongs in the Sunshine Millions Dash at Santa Anita Park on Jan. 26. Since then he averaged 94 running second and third in routes on the cushion track.

Big Brown ran 106 Beyers in both his preps and is the likely post-time favorite on Saturday. The son of Boundary, among a half-dozen horses with only two preps, likes to win on the front end. He ran the Florida Derby’s 1 1/8 miles in 1:48 on March 31 winning by five lengths at Gulfstream Park.

Recapturetheglory, who posted a 102 Beyer winning the Illinois Derby at Hawthorne, also led at every call. The son of Cherokee Run ran the 1 1/8 miles in 1:49.

Gayego recorded a 103 Beyer winning the Arkansas Derby on April 12, covering the 1 1/8 miles at Oaklawn Park in 1:49 3/5. The son of Gilded Time ran a 102 taking the San Pedro on Jan. 20, but that was at six furlongs at Santa Anita.

The only other triple-digit Beyer was 102 by Z Fortune, runner-up in the Arkansas Derby, who was just three-quarters of a length behind Gayego. The son of Siphon finished second to Pyro in the Blue Grass on April 12.

Pyro recorded 105 and 100 Beyers last year chasing War Pass in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and Champagne Stakes, respectively.

War Pass posted 113 and 103 Beyers, respectively, in those races at Monmouth and Belmont Park, but was injured after failing to win two preps this year.

Eight Belles, a filly that will be entered in the Derby and Kentucky Oaks, posted the only other triple-digit Beyer. Whether she runs against the boys, her interests say, depends on Wednesday’s draw.
The daughter of Unbridled’s Song put up a 100 speed figure in the first of four victories against fillies in a Fair Grounds allowance contest last year. Then she reeled off three consecutive wins in stakes this year.

outlaw420 · Posted: May 02 2008 08:36 am Post subject:

A Muddled Field

By Andrew Beyer
Friday, May 2, 2008; E01
Washington Post

"This is not a tough horse race," trainer Rick Dutrow says of the 134th Kentucky Derby, and he is correct in the sense that there is not much formidable competition for his colt Big Brown. The favorite has won all three of his starts with ease, earning superior speed figures, and none of his rivals has a record remotely comparable. In an ordinary race, a horse with such credentials might look unbeatable.

But the Derby is no ordinary race, and it always is a tough one, requiring horses to run 1 1/4 miles amid the chaos of a 20-horse field -- something they will not do again in their lives. History indicates that horses must have sufficient seasoning to handle the unique stress of the race.

A horse ought to have raced at least five times in his career to be ready for the Derby. No horse with fewer than five starts has earned a blanket of Derby roses since Exterminator in 1918. Thirty have tried and failed.

Debunkers of the experience factor can argue (correctly) that most of these statistics are based on results from a bygone era. Modern horses race less often than their ancestors, and modern trainers know how to get their horses fit with light regimens. Yet even outstanding horses fail in the Derby if they don't have sufficient preparation. Curlin came into last year's race with an undefeated record in three starts -- just like Big Brown. By the end of the year, he had proved that he not only was the best colt of his generation but the best horse in the world. Still, he lost the Derby, probably because he didn't have the seasoning to cope with the rough-and-tumble circumstances he encountered at Churchill Downs.

So even though Big Brown owns the best Beyer Speed Figure in the Derby field, I am throwing him out tomorrow. I would not take 2 to 1 on a horse trying to overcome such strong historical precedents. (Nor would I take a short price on a horse breaking from post position No. 20.)

But even eliminating the favorite doesn't clarify this Derby. The race is filled with unknowns, because of one almost indecipherable factor: synthetic surfaces.

Of the 20 Derby entrants, nine made their last starts on synthetic tracks. Two have not raced on anything but synthetics. What should handicappers make of horses such as Monba and Adriano, who won important stakes on Polytrack after poor performances on dirt? What do we do with Pyro, who ran terribly on Keeneland's Polytrack after looking like a potential star on dirt? What do we do with Colonel John, regarded as the West's top 3-year-old, who has not run on anything but the synthetic surfaces in California?

Because of the newness of synthetics, there isn't much historical evidence to make definitive judgments. But it is clear that racing on dirt and racing on synthetics are distinctly different games, and most horses will prefer one to another. So it is reasonable to disregard any horse who has made his reputation on a synthetic track without showing that he can win a stakes on dirt. Put an X over Monba, Adriano, Cowboy Cal, Bob Black Jack and Colonel John. It may take some courage to eliminate the last one -- particularly after his lightning-fast workout fast over the Churchill Downs surface this week -- but he is the probable second choice in the wagering, and I would not take a short price on a horse who never has competed on dirt.

By disregarding the two favorites, a horseplayer should be able to find some lucrative exotic-betting opportunities in the Derby. Yet it is hard for me to muster much enthusiasm or conviction on behalf of the others. This is a weak crop of 3-year-olds. In a typical year, the eventual Derby winner will come into the race showing that he can run a Beyer Speed Figure in the 105 to 110 range. In this year's lineup, Big Brown's 106 is the best, and only six horses ever have earned a triple-digit figure.

Two of these six are Gayego and Z Fortune, who finished 1-2 in the Arkansas Derby. Both earned their numbers honestly; Gayego dueled hard for the early lead, and Z Fortune rallied after being parked wide on both turns. For both of them, it was a career-best race, and some handicappers will reject a horse who has peaked in his most recent start. But long-priced horses such as Funny Cide (2003), War Emblem (2002) and Charismatic (1999) all won the Derby after coming to life in their final prep race.

Pyro, by contrast, comes into the Derby after the worst race of his life -- his dismal showing on Polytrack. There's not much history to support the chances of a horse who finished 10th in his final prep race. Yet Pyro is one of only two colts in the field -- the other being Big Brown -- who have demonstrated exceptional talent. He was dazzling when he rallied from far behind to win his racing debut at Churchill Downs last summer. He earned a Beyer Speed Figure of 105 running second in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile last fall. His rally to win the Risen Star Stakes at the Fair Grounds in February was so phenomenal that he evoked comparisons to the legendary Silky Sullivan.

This is a colt whose running style always seemed made to order for the Derby, and he had been the favorite in future betting until his Polytrack debacle. Now he is discredited, but he remains the lone horse in the field with both the raw talent and the racing experience that usually are necessary to win the Derby.

My selections: 1. Pyro. 2. Z Fortune. 3. Gayego.

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